The housing stock across this whole service area runs 1962 to 2005, median around 1983, and Fairwood's own median build year lands at 1981 - right in that band, on the older side of it. Doors and track hardware installed in the early '80s were built to a different tolerance than what goes in today. Steel gauge on the track rails is thinner, and a lot of these garages still run the original galvanized track that was never swapped when the door itself got replaced later.
That mismatch is where off-track failures start. A homeowner upgrades to a heavier insulated door somewhere along the way but keeps the original track and rollers because nobody mentioned they should go together. The heavier door rides rollers sized for a lighter one, wear accelerates, and eventually a roller seats wrong in the channel and the whole panel walks off center.
The cold-moderate climate here doesn't crack panels the way a harder freeze-thaw region would, but it does stiffen old grease in track channels through the winter months, and a stiff roller that doesn't turn freely is a roller that's more likely to skip the track under load rather than roll through it.